BTC Analysis 4-30

Large Move Upwards

BTC gained 21billion in market cap. Posting a high of 8977.20, as of 3:46 UTC BTC has broken that and is trading 20 dollars above that, significiacnt becaus it means the buyers still haven't left the market. In fact two of thelargest BTC mining pools in the world, behind China, are located in the Czech republic, Georgia and Iceland. The sun is just rising in all three of those countries if not already around 7:30AM, as it is in Georgia at the time of writing. All those happy miners are gonna wake up to a %13.21 increase to whatever they owned last night. There will likely be no sell off until at least tomorrow morning, Chinese time which is aroind 9 hours from now. For now most likely there will be continued buying into the end of the week.

End of Crazy Weekends

As I reported here a few days ago, the price correlation between the Dow and BTC didn't hold on the weekends when the market wasn't open. Instead it posted huge gains and it became more and more clear that BTC was moving towards a breakout of this sort. With only 12 days and a few hours left before the greatly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, this is exactly the time to expect large impulsive moves upwards where buying insights buying.

This isn't to say this is jsut being inflated and it's a bull trap. In my view a large reason behind this price spike is a leakage of the 8 trillion and some change that the fed has injected in recent weeks, spilling into crypto, which has a great number of institutional investors. A recent report by grayscale had fantastic numbers, some record setting.

Largest Quarterly Raise in Grayscale History: Grayscale raised $503.7 million in 1Q20, nearly double the previous quarterly high of $254.8 in 3Q19. New investors accounted for $160.1 million in inflows. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust both experienced record quarterly inflows of $388.9 million and $110.0 million, respectively. Billion Dollar Year: For the first time, inflows into Grayscale products over a 12-month period crossed the $1 billion threshold ($1.07 billion), showing strong and sustained evidence that investors are increasing their digital asset exposure at current levels. Cumulative investment across the Grayscale family of products since inception has reached $1.68 billion.7 Hedge Fund Investment Gains Steam: 88% of inflows this quarter came from institutional investors, the overwhelming majority of which were hedge funds. The mandate and strategic focus of these funds is broadly mixed and includes Multi-Strat, Global Macro, Arbitrage, Long/Short Equity, Event Driven, and Crypto-focused funds. Investors Further Diversify: Approximately 38% of investors now have allocations to multiple products within the Grayscale family, up from 29% at the end of 1Q19.

This is the type of info, when coupled with BTC price action like today's, will add fuel to the fire. This report is about a week old and with bad data coming out recently for the US economy liquidity is flying to the new safe haven, BTC. A feeling of FOMO is setting in.

Where Next?

BTC is in a new price range, over 1000 dollars above the last price range it sat in. This is the third time that has happened in as many weeks. That is a strong signal of further buying to come.

A bearish diveregance is forming on the hourly chart, just below the fibonacci level 0.382, which sits at 9501. In general price action having a small divergance like this is a good place for an entry into the continuation of the move upwards. Price tends to gravitate towards fibonacci levels and when stopped by the market close to one, it usually does not fall far back after such a strong 2 month price trend upwards twoards the level.

As indicated by the chart, the price 8941 holds some significance, whether or not it acts as an area of support, +/-150 dollars or so, or will price retest lows of 8241.

An actionable set up in a scenario like this would be to keep an eye on price over the next 12 hours, see what happens at 8941 first. If there is a rebbound in the are around that price, there will be a confirmation candle closing above that level after price trades below it for a short period of time.

If price falls below and struggles to reclaim above, chances are price will retest the 8241 area. I recognize that the price levels are exaclty 700 dollars apart but that is merely a coincidence, the price levels are not adjusted to achieve a flat difference between the high and low of a range.

Zooming Out on the Hourly

This is not the first time this exact price movement has happened in the lsat 30 days or so. On March 19th an almost identitcal rally took place, and folllowed the exact price action I describesd occuring around fibonacci levels. A small pullback is due, following will be another run into the above fibonacci range from 9500-11460. This process, as I mentioned the other day, will likely take 30 days or less. It depends on how hard this pullback is, if any. BTC is a wild asset and can go on price runs that under a technichal analysis view should be impossible. On the run to 20k in 2017, the RSI which caps off at 100 and saw bearish divergences of the type seen here were completely ignored and price continued to climb. Back then it was media hype over blockchain tech and ICO's. Now it's possible collapse of the global economy and mass panic across the globe during a government-induced lockdown.