BTC-ADA Hourly Time Frame Analysis 5-13

Fib Levels

The fibonacci level sitting at 9501 is currently pulling price upwards. This looks very similiar to how price acted last time it was trading in the vicinity of a fibonacci level, except the pullback after breaking above was greater this time around. One reason for this was because of all the hype behind the halving, also once the selling started many traders were locked out of their accounts due to server issues, and price was trading very rapidly in a very small spread, looking like bots were the only ones doing anything for about 25 minutes after the drop. This is probably the same reason the sell-off happened, because one price hit a certain floor, it triggered a cascade of sell orders across multiple currencies, amplifying the drop.

As you can see the last time it was near the fib level below, it poked a hole in it with a candle wick, pointed by the arrow. This time it was more than a wick and price spent some time above it before the pullback. This is a strong sign that acceptance above the level is to come, but not before some more action below.

Thomas Denmark

Thomas Denmark was a great trader, and coined a very simple strategy for reading price trends. He realized you can connect any two relevant highs with a horizontal line, and then use a sloped line to connect at least two lows occuring within the length of the horizontal line. It creates a triangle, where the resistance is the top line and the sloped line is rising support.

As price consolidates and trades into the constricted area where the two lines meet, price is coiling to break out. It can do so in either direction, which is why you use this structure in tandem with other indicators.

Currently BTC is forming a smaller TD triangle, peaking now in the low 9000 range. If a breakout ensues, a retest of the fibonacci level, or at least the 3/7 high will follow. If price reacts in a predictable manner, and follows a similiar pattern as last time it will likely follow closely the line traced.

If you'll notice, I have also drawn the TD triangle on the RSI, this is just to ensure there isn't any major bearish divergences forming, and there is a weak one, but it seems more likely a breakout here will invalidate it, charting a higher high in both price and RSI.

Penny Coin Strategy

ADA still heavily correlated to bitcoin, doesn't make a move until BTC does. If BTC breaks out here, a retest of the 0.05200 range is possible here. The levels here are accurately corresponding to the levels on the other chart, meaning one BTC pullsback from the retest, ADA will pullback hard to the 0.04773 level.

It is important to remember the increased volatility of these penny coins. Their market caps are relatively very small, so fluctuations in price that can wipe someone out are not uncommon. If you forget this, there is a good chance you will lose money rather than earn profit.

Outer Market Factors

A good way to tell current out-of-market sentiment, that is how the world of non-bitcoiners are viewing bitcoin, is to simply search the word bitcoin and click on the news tab. In the past day, mainstream publications like Forbes, CNN, International Business, AFP, and Bloomberg have all reported on the halving. Forbes even has had two crypto articles, one on the halving, and another on JP Morgan Bank's two new clients, who are crypto exchanges.

Overall this creates a FOMO mindset in the people who aren't already here and actively investing in bitcoin. Hopefully as more people fall in, more people realize they need to drop out of the other system, and tune in to crypto full-time. Speculation and trading won't change the world, adoption will.