Bitcoin Price Analysis and Penny Coin Update

BTC June 3rd

Today we have seen the same price action we observed over the night of February 19th 2019. That is the red ellipse on the left side of the chart. A near identical set of candles occured over the last ~18 hours, resulting a retest of the same high and a similiar rejection.

I have referenced this chart before here, on May 22nd. In there I mentioned that we were headed for a retest of the weekly resistance level and that it would likely be rejected, as it was.

Another part to note is this price action was replicated in February and proceeded by a steep decline in price. More on that further down.

RSI Divergence on High Time Frame

Zooming in a bit, it seems today was the final spike in a long string of lower RSI highs and higher price. The sudden rejection of the weekly level is also a bearish sign.

Price will likely continue to slide into the 9216 level, and look for support. Its possible that could act as the spring needed to break above the 10,406 USD level. More likely it will fail as support and be flipped into resistance on prices way down to 8072 USD.

Within the next two weeks, it would be more surprising to see Bitcoin trading firmly in the 11,000 USD range than the 7000 USD range.

External Factors

Bitcoin didn't do well in the first leg of this crisis, falling victim to Dow and S&P correlation as they plummeted. The panic has not subsided, and the economies were already far from full re-opening without the looting across the country.

It is likely this will push many small businesses into bankruptcy if the government hadn't already. The GDP numbers were worse than expected, and unemployent will continue to rise as local centers of employment, namely the downtown areas of major cities experiencing the worst of the looting, will have to push back restarting even further.

With this bad data, markets will eventualy catch up. The financial markets across the globe will be affected during the next market meltdown in the coming weeks, as many are now back in pre-lockdown price territory. It is likely crypto will again suffer, presenting a great opportunity for investors with cash on the sideline.

Penny Coin Update

Focusing in on ADA in this edition, there seems to be continued decorrelation between ADA and BTC. That being said when BTC takes its hit from the markets, all crypto will. It is important to remember this as we move forward, not just in the artice but in the coming weeks.

ADA has finally broken out of the range it was previously contained by in the last 3 weeks or so. Next step would likely be a retest of the lowest close during a short consolidation period during the impulse move upwards, at 0.07486 USD.

Likely some time to be spent there before it is decided on retesting 5/28 resistance or the range high. As of now, short and in cash makes the most sense.