TOB-Tag
Bookmarks

Market Update: Price Analysis of BTC and Penny Coins

BTC Daily and 4H Charts


Looking to the daily chart for BTC, we can see that the bollinger bands attempted to constrict with price riding the lower band. However yesterday's %4.37 (+406.01 USD) resulted in a crossing back over the middle band, now trading around 100 USD above that level, at 9543 USD.

RSI currently wavering around the 50 point mark for 29 days, with a max deviation of 13.5 points to 63.50 on June 1st. This signifies uncertainty in the market and produces the grounds for a price move of relative significance soon to come.


On the 4H chart, BTC is giving notice of where that move will be directed: downward. Between June 7th and June 15th the price made three distinct lower lows, and on the latter two, RSI did not follow but instead posted a flat bottom on the lower oversold line of 25 points, and began to rise, now sitting at 63.77. This rise comes over the same time period of seven days.

Price seems to be coming to a head now at the 9650 USD level, however some things are uncertain. Typically in crypto, bearish RSI divergences signaling a top occur in two, sometimes three, divergent spikes. That is to say, I have been observed in multiple crypto markets that when price decides to deviate from the falling RSI and continue upwards, signaling a local top, price will spike upwards in deviation 3 times. If this holds true, a retest of the 10k USD level is possible before next week's market update.

Regardless of these possible pumps occuring or not, BTC has a bearish market structure. As previously predicted, the important 10406 USD level acted as support. In fact price reacted just one dollar short of hitting the predicted 10406 USD level, which I called here way back on May 22nd. In order for this market structure to be invalidated, a breach and hold above this level would be neccesary. At whcih point price will quickly reach 12.3k USD, bringing with it many other cryptos.

Penny Coin - ADA


Daily chart for ADA is showing strong resistance at the 0.08406 USD level, one I have been covering for weeks now. The price has tested this level twice in just 6 days, and has been unsuccesful in breaching it.

While price tangles with that resistance, the daily RSI is struggling to stay above the 50 point level, and currently trading at a lower value than it was 6 days ago at the same price range. This minor deviation could signal a drop to come.


The 4H has the RSI rising slightly above the previous value when at this price level. When there is directly conflicting signals with the same indicator on multiple timeframes, it usually pays to listen to the higher timeframe, as those patters hold more weight on the technical bias derived.

The price has attempted a rise to breach the resistance level as well as the upper bollinger band, resulting in a rejection. Now price is "sliding" from the top band to the middle, meaning price is moving sideways as the middle band moves upwards towards the price. Once the two meet, price will react and show its hand, either moving downards towards 0.07040 USD or breaching the 0.08406 level and racing to 0.09 USD qucickly.

Penny Coin - XLM


XLM is coming off a large rejection of the 0.07609 USD level, which resulted in price immediately running to the lower bollinger band. There it has found strong support at 0.06540 USD, the April 24th high. This signals that the resistance experienced in April has flipped into support for the past few days, and if tested again should be expected to hold.

The RSI on the daily is making its way through the third leg of a bearish deviation. RSI peaking on April 29th and price continuing to run up as it fell, and in the rejection mentioned above price rose above that level and RSI did not follow suit. Likely price will attempt one more weak move upwards before falling to the 0.06540 USD level.


On the 4H chart, there has been some moderately interesting price action. After testing upper band and falling to the middle band for support, the price rose again to the upper band and was again rejected. All of this happening in ~24 hours.

Now the middle band and support level of 0.07055 USD are just about equal. A retest of this level that results in a failure would break two forms of expected support, the price level from past price action and the middle band, making it more signinficant. Look for a move to 0.06540 USD by next week's update, on June 30th.